Report Date: Fri. October 17, 2014
By Forecaster: Austin Gendron:

Tropical Conditions:
Low pressure located about 150 miles south of Acapulco, MX is becoming more organized, and will continue to develop over the next few hours, possibly becoming a tropical depression by later today.  Southern and Central Mexico are going to see navy rains and strong winds associated with the storm most likely, but global models show the short-lived system moving inland on Saturday.  Local windswell is likely to pick up through the weekend for Southern Mexico.  Stay tuned.

Swell Forecast:
Other than the pending tropical system off the coast of Southern Mexico, the forecast is looking pretty quiet.  the small mix of SSW-SW (200-215) swell in the water continues to maintain deepwater heights in the 2-3 foot range. 

A blend of background energy from the S-SW (180-220) will show up over the weekend.  Nothing too exciting, but should help maintain small to moderate sized surf at standouts through the weekend and start of next week.

Further out the South Pacific continues to be shifty, with low confidence in the long-range forecast models, and mostly smaller systems in the works. There's a slightly bigger pulse of SW (215-220) due to build mid to late next week.  This one could peak with 2-3 feet of deepwater energy and bring more consistent chest to overhead surf to standout breaks through the second half of next week.

Beyond that, the models do start to look more active next week, but that's sort of how things have been going lately.  You give it a few days and everything settles down and next thing you know you're looking at barely mentionable systems developing weak background swells.  So I'll put off any detailed overview of that stuff until the models have mature a bit more.

CHECK OUT for more swell info  



Friday the 17th small knee to chest high surf for most average spots, possibly a few shoulder to head high sets at standouts.

Saturday the 18th, knee to chest high surf continues, there could be a few more consistent chest to head high+ sets as new S swell starts to build.

Sunday the 19th the small S swell could mean more consistency at southerly exposures, but ultimately knee to chest high+ surf for most of the regions average breaks.

Monday the 20th, small waist to chest high surf at standouts.

Tuesday the 21st, Background SW starts to fill in maintaining 1-3 feet of deepwater swell and wave heights in the waist to chest high+ range at standouts.

Wednesday the 22nd a blend of old and new SW swell and some lingering S swell should mean waist to head high waves, with a few standouts seeing head high+ to overhead sets.

Thursday the 23rd, the new SW continues to build and standout breaks should continue to be running waist to head high.

That's it for today, be safe, and get in the water!

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